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Thursday Night

Miami (-33) over West Virginia. 3 Stars.  Miami is a juggernaut on offense and defense and the Mountaineers will not get in their way.  Miami's average margin of victory is 33 points that will grow this week.  With this game on ESPN, Miami needs a strong offensive showing and close to a shutout on defense to keep the voters impressed.  Miami may lose the #1 spot anyway this week to the winner of Oklahoma-Nebraska, but they will work to prevent that if possible.  Miami is +12 on turnovers where WVa. is -7 making a differential of over 3 per game.  Although the visiting team has the edge in the series covering 10 of the last 11, the spread and talent differences have never been this large.  WVa. is 0-15 ATS when allowing over 30 points in a conference game.  Miami will score over 50 in front of the home crowd.

Saturday

Moss Report's October Grand Slam Countdown

Instructions: Bet the Units stated on each game.  Bet 4 - 1 Unit 3 Team Parlays made up of 3 of the 4 teams, so you will have every 3 team combination covered.  Bet 1 - 1 Unit 4 Team Parlay. 

Auburn (-1) over Arkansas.  5 Stars.   This should be a low scoring affair with Auburn's capable offense getting the nod over an offensively inept (attach any meaning to that phrase you want) Arkansas.  Arkansas is averaging a mere 12 points a game and 208 yards against Division I programs, that is really pathetic.  Auburn played just well enough to beat La. Tech (we liked them last week to cover) and avoid the letdown loss after a huge upset win.  This week before their bye week Auburn will be focused and ready for this road trip into hostile territory.  This Auburn team has the intangibles to win and that is what they will do this week.

Conference USA Game of the Month: Houston (+20.5) over Southern Miss.  6 Stars.  Southern Miss may win this game, but we don't think they can score 20 points.  Quagmire would describe the type of football being played by Southern Miss, hope we score a little more then the other team while keeping the punters busy.  Playing against Houston they will score, but Houston has scored at least 14 points in every game this season.  If Southern Miss averaged more then 60 yards on the ground, our thoughts could be different, but this line is way too large.

Utah (-2.5) over Colorado St.  4 Stars.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in this series, but there is much more going on in this selection.  Utah possess a balanced offense, a strong run defense, and a 5-1 SU and ATS record.  They are a team on a roll that has performed more impressively each and every week.  Colorado State has been very down, up, down, up, down, down, up losing 2 of the last 4 games but covering all 4.  They are living and dying at the hands of their new qb Bradlee Van Pelt who has shined at times and at other times made even his parents want to boo (ESPN kept cutting to the kid's parents during the 7-2 loss to Louisville).  Utes will hunt down the Rams and cook them for dinner

Mountain West Game of the Year:  BYU (-14) over SDSU.  7 Stars.  Revenge on the road with all of their weapons in place including Luke Staley.  Last year, SDSU won by a point in Provo, but these teams are totally different.  BYU is undefeated at 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS.  They have an incredible offense averaging 49 point that has not been stopped with Luke Staley on the field.  BYU is winning by 24 points a game and has net 20 turnover advantage against SDSU.  SDSU main source of offense RB Larry Ned is a little dinged up.  BYU is back in cruise control like they were last week against Air Force.

Saturday's Free Picks

Va. Tech (-18) over Syracuse.  2 Stars.  Virginia Tech keeps on getting better on defense while offense continues to move the ball well.    Virginia Tech has held every team they have played to season lows on offense.  The home team has covered 9 of 10 in the series and the Hokies are a solid 5-1 ATS off a bye at home against a .500 or better opponent.  Syracuse is 2-14 ATS as a road dog.

Wisconsin (-3.5) over Michigan St.  2 Stars.  This is a classic looking ahead call here.  Michigan State plays Michigan next week which is their most important game of every season and therefore they could be caught looking ahead.  The Spartans also have a ton of injuries in their defensive secondary and both QB's are banged up.   The favorite is 12-3 in this series.

Buffalo (+3) over Eastern Michigan. 3 Stars.  This is a game of bad v. bad and we know that, but the odds makers picked the wrong bad team to win.  Buffalo has shown improvement in their 3rd Year of real college football at the Div. I level under a new coach.  Buffalo is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games. Eastern Mich has been playing in the MAC forever and they are getting worse.  The Eagles, that's the EMU nickname, y are 9-22-1 ATS since 1999, 3-11-1 ATS as a favorite or a dog of 10 or less, and 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points. 

Rice (+3.5) over La. Tech.  2 Stars.  Rice is 6-1 SU and 3-3-1 ATS so they are winning but doing while just straddling the spread.  This week, their running offense which averages 289 yard per game goes against a run defense that allows over 200 ypg.   Rice's pass defense may struggle against La. Tech's QB Luke McCown who is throwing for almost 350 a game but in the end Rice will benefit from some opportune turnovers and win straight up on the road. 

Central Florida (UCF) (-5.5) over Utah St.  3 Stars.  Both teams have faced top national competition to start off their seasons, but Central Florida has pulled out some big wins going 4-3 SU and 4-1-1 ATS.  Utah State has not played as close but got a 1 point win last week against I-AA Idaho State.  Central Florida has a defense that has only given up one TD in the last 3 games and is creating turnovers.  Utah State weak passing defense will be exposed by the traditionally strong passing game in place for the UCF Knights.  UCF will win easily to get their fourth in a row.